My Reward for Trusting My Instincts

I picked Mercer over Duke.

Yes, it’s the single greatest pick I’ve ever made in my history of filling out brackets.

How did I do it? Had I analyzed dozens of Mercer games and knew they were a tough matchup for a higher seed?

Nope.

Did I take notice of Duke’s habit of losing to lower ranked teams and decided to gamble with Mercer?

Nope.

I didn’t even know I was picking Mercer. I just trusted my instincts.

I lacked the time to watch a lot of college basketball this year, so when tournament time rolled around I relied on The Wall Street Journal’s “Blind Bracket.” It’s a unique tool that lets you pick games without knowing what team you are choosing. Instead, you are given a one sentence blurb on the team, what their seed and RPI rage was, and a 1-5 rating in various categories such as “offense” and “hot streak.” For example:

blindbracket

I was drawn to a mid-major team that featured a veteran core and had defeated a top 25 team during the season. They also had high marks in the “three point shooting” and “hot streak” categories, which I tend to think fuels most upsets in March.

I really liked this team, so I kept picking them. When I finished the bracket, it was reveled that I had picked Mercer to go to the Elite 8! Ridiculous! Not only would a 14 seed have to upset a 3 seed, they would have to pull off a series of upsets and make one of the most memorable March runs.

I decided to enter my “blind bracket” in a bracket pool. I thought long and hard about altering my Mercer pick. I asked multiple people for advice; they all said that I should definitely choose Duke instead of Mercer.

But, before I knew the actual teams, I knew what I liked. My instincts told me team A would beat team B. I didn’t want to let a name override how I actually felt. So, I trusted my instincts. Now, I can tell everyone that I picked Mercer over Duke. It feels good. Damn good.

Was there a time when you went against the grain, trusted your instincts, and ended up being right? How close did you come to abandoning those instincts? What made you trust them in the final seconds?

Maybe we should all trust our instincts more often.