So You’re Telling Me There’s A Chance!

On the surface, something that has a one in a million chance can seem discouraging. Those seem like insurmountable odds.

So why do we hear about one in a million events happening all the time?

Is it luck? Maybe, but here’s an article that has a better explanation.

The Forbes.com article is a little long, but it takes an interesting look at an ordinary blackjack table where extraordinary events occurred. All six players were dealt 21 (the perfect hand). Then the dealer flipped over her cards to reveal that she too had 21.

Rarely is one person at a table dealt 21, let alone seven people. What are the odds of that happening?? Not good. That is, until you look a little closer at the situation.

The article uses some very impressive math to show that with all the casinos and all the blackjack games going on each day, the likelihood that such a set of hands will be drawn is “about 0.31, which means we’d expect to see it happen about once every three years on average.”

Basically this “1 in 1.9 billion event” is far more common than we would think.

Even things that have a one in a million chance of taking place are actually quite likely to happen if it has millions of opportunities to happen.

It appears that Jim Carrey’s character, Lloyd Christmas, in the above clip from Dumb & Dumber, may be on to something. The chances of him landing a date with a woman who is out of his league actually aren’t as bad as it may seem.